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Chance Studios, Inc. - Final Grant Report

Grant report released

Steady

22

signal score

→ Steady

7-day est. ~25

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Why this scored 22

every term, weighted
Velocity+16.3 / 40 max

Engagement per hour, normalized against the fastest item on its own source

Acceleration+0.0 / 25 max

Whether that velocity is itself speeding up, as a per-hour rate

Cross-source spread+0.0 / 25 max

How many independent communities are talking about the same entity

Recency+7.1 / 10 max

Decays to zero over 14 days

Saturation penalty−1.1 / 30 max

Subtracted once something is big and old — we rank what's next, not what's peaked

Composite22.4

Weights are hand-tuned, not learned — we're calibrating them against realized trends as history accumulates. On a topic's first sighting there's no previous reading to compare against, so acceleration starts from a neutral prior rather than a measurement. Full methodology

Outlook

medium confidence · estimate, not a guarantee

7-day

~25

range 4–47

14-day

~25

range 0–51

30-day

~24

range 0–59

Signal history

7-day window (free)

— — projected trajectory (estimate, not a guarantee)

Entities

chance studios
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