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[RFC] Operational Mandate: S9 Impact Autopsy & S10 Capital Efficiency Oracle

Operational mandate

Steady

9

signal score

↓ Cooling

7-day est. ~3

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Why this scored 9

every term, weighted
Velocity+4.1 / 40 max

Engagement per hour, normalized against the fastest item on its own source

Acceleration+0.0 / 25 max

Whether that velocity is itself speeding up, as a per-hour rate

Cross-source spread+0.0 / 25 max

How many independent communities are talking about the same entity

Recency+5.5 / 10 max

Decays to zero over 14 days

Saturation penalty−1.0 / 30 max

Subtracted once something is big and old — we rank what's next, not what's peaked

Composite8.6

Weights are hand-tuned, not learned — we're calibrating them against realized trends as history accumulates. On a topic's first sighting there's no previous reading to compare against, so acceleration starts from a neutral prior rather than a measurement. Full methodology

Outlook

medium confidence · estimate, not a guarantee

7-day

~3

range 1–5

14-day

~1

range 0–4

30-day

~0

range 0–4

Signal history

7-day window (free)

— — projected trajectory (estimate, not a guarantee)

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