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Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

Record El Niño forecasts signal potential climate disruptions affecting operations.

Steady

16

signal score

as of 9d ago

Too early

trajectory — needs a few more snapshots

Why this scored 16

every term, weighted
Velocity+0.0 / 40 max

Engagement gained per hour since the last capture, against the fastest item on its own source

Acceleration+11.3 / 25 max

Whether that velocity is itself speeding up, as a per-hour rate

Cross-source spread+0.0 / 25 max

How many independent communities are talking about the same entity

Recency+7.9 / 10 max

Decays to zero over 14 days

Saturation penalty3.6 / 30 max

Subtracted once something is big and old — we rank what's next, not what's peaked

Composite15.6

Weights are hand-tuned, not learned — we're calibrating them against realized trends as history accumulates. On a topic's first sighting there's no previous reading to compare against, so acceleration starts from a neutral prior rather than a measurement, and velocity falls back to engagement over its whole lifetime until a second reading exists. Full methodology

Signal history

7-day window (free)
Not enough history yet — the trend line fills in as snapshots accrue (every 30 min).
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Drop this in a README or blog post — it updates automatically as the score moves.